© David D. Schreck of StrategicThoughts.com

Trust us, engineers can solve any problem (sure). That could well be the short version of the "British Columbia Offshore Oil and Gas Technology Update" dated October 19, 2001. The 196 page report and three appendices are available for download from the Ministry of Energy & Mines website.

Appendix 2 contains a copy of a news release dated May 14, 2001, from the Tsimshian Nation and the Haida Nation stating that they support the moratorium and that the reasons for initiating the moratorium have not changed. A careful reading of the updated report shows the first nations are right.

By way of background, the updated report claims to be unbiased and says:

"This report entitled British Columbia Offshore Oil and Gas Technology Update is an update of the 1998 AGRA Earth and Environmental Limited report Review of Offshore Development Technologies prepared for the British Columbia Information, Science and Technology Agency. This update report is a component of the provincial government's review of the offshore oil and gas moratorium and is an extension of the process that includes the 1986 Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration, a Report and Recommendations of the West Coast Offshore Exploration Environmental Assessment Panel and the 1998 AGRA report. Jacques Whitford Environment Limited has prepared this document as an unbiased update of offshore oil and gas engineering, environmental and socio-economic factors, and state-of-the-art technologies." (p. 173)

On page 172 the updated report says "In conclusion, the study has found that there are no specific design, geohazard or environmental issues that would preclude the development of the offshore oil and gas reservoirs of British Columbia. However, the economic viability of a specific reservoir may be adversely impacted by the costs associated with mitigating the geohazard and environmental risks."

Immediately before that conclusion, the report makes a pitch for the new catch word around the Campbell government - "results based regulation" - when it says:

"One of the important issues to be addressed by Government in the regulation of oil and gas developments offshore will be the degree to which regulations are prescriptive. The eastern Canadian offshore regulations are heavily prescriptive which can place a significant cost burden on potential offshore activities. With the advances in the technology of offshore investigations, drilling and production, there is significant opportunity to use a results oriented, review and approval process to ensure the highest economic benefit while ensuring that the potential for environmental and safety risks are adequately controlled."

One can only suppose the results for those results based regulations might include the number of species eliminated after a disaster, and an estimate on how long the destruction of fisheries and tourism might last. The updated report acknowledged that "The area around the Queen Charlotte Islands, Dixon Entrance, Hecate Strait and Queen Charlotte Sound is known to be one of the most seismically active areas of the world." (p. 62). It also acknowledged severe storms and said "The waters surrounding the Queen Charlotte Islands are commonly reported as the windiest in Canada ." (p. 55). If that isn't bad enough, the report said "Given the close relationship between storm winds and surface waves, wave conditions in the northern British Columbia waters can also be considered relatively severe." (p. 57)

The approach of the report is to categorize each of these threats as risks to be managed. For example, when discussing tsunamis, the reports says:

"Satake (2001) reports an analytical study of tsunami in the Pacific Rim triggered by a large landslide in the Hawaiian Islands and estimated that the tsunami height could be 30 m (100 feet) in the western margins of Dixon Entrance and Queen Charlotte Sound. Lynett et al. (2001) also proposed a numerical model for tsunamis. The site-specific tsunami-related design parameters including wave heights and run-up can be estimated for the oil and gas developments in British Columbia offshore lease areas following such procedures. These parameters should then be used in structural design and risk management of offshore oil and gas facilities."

The good news according to the report's summary of these risks is that at least we don't have icebergs:

"In summary, the northern waters of British Columbia present a complex physical environment, with highly variable bathymetry, strong winds and currents, and high waves during storm events. The region is also one of high seismic activity, with the associated risk of slope failure and tsunami generation.

Conversely, the significant risk to offshore facilities posed by icebergs on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland is not found on the west coast of Canada."

Anyone concerned about our environment should carefully read the updated report. There one does not find answers on how the risks will be managed. Rather one finds assurances that engineers have solved problems in other parts of the world. The following is one example of that attitude that can be characterized as trust the engineers:

"The physical conditions under which offshore hydrocarbon exploration, development and production activities occur impact engineering designs, operational procedures and environmental impacts associated with any contaminant releases to the marine environment. Uncertainties in the physical parameters discussed in this section can be dealt with through standard approaches such as increased factors of safety included in engineering designs and operational procedures, while environmental concerns can be reduced through the incorporation of additional spill prevention measures into offshore equipment. The net effect of high uncertainties in the physical conditions under which offshore activities are to occur is to increase the cost of offshore activities and reduce the economic feasibility of a given project, rather than to limit the technical feasibility of offshore exploration." (p. 67)(emphasis added)

Far from offering assurances about the safety of drilling in Hecate Strait, a careful read of the report confirms the conclusions reached by the Tsimshian Nation and the Haida Nation that the moratorium is necessary and the reasons for initiating it have not changed.